This is what I mean by collecting ...

I always laugh : when think back on the reactions people have when I show them the things of value that I've taken it upon myself to collect throughout my life. I'm referring to people like family members, business associates, neighbors and not to my brother fellow collectors as they view them with me. This is strictly about traits I see in what I call "the unenlightened" group of this world.

I say "unenlightened" because when I show them an item (let's say a custom knife ), their reaction is one, understanding that what they are looking at is unique, quality and has high rarity. But, then they say, "wow .. how much did that cost?". So, immediately I see that they do not understand real value in the sense I know it. I call these people "unenlightened". They are walking zombies to me, from a league standpoint. Here's why ...

"If a person is collecting items for their intrinsic and value maintaining qualities, the cost of the item is irrelevant to the collection. Regardless of the dollar limit you set on the collection, your goal is to pursue items that are "worth" their cost."

So, when you tour Bill Gate's collection of SR Johnson's , Monet's and Rolex's, or Steve Wynn's collection of Lovelace's, Rembrandt's, Picasso's, and you're first reaction is going, "wow ... I wonder what that cost?" You're out! Bill and Steve look at you and laugh in the back of their minds. They understand that their collections don't cost a dime, they hold value.

In effect, Steve and Bill own all their collection items, billions of dollars worth, for the grand total "cost" of ZERO. That's right boy's. The finest of the fine they own, at a total cost of nothing. Better than that ... it's making them money!

Now, what does a guy like me learn from this knowledge?

I have 2 rules that I abide by as a collector when looking from the buyer's perspective. Here they are in order of importance:

1. It has to work for the collection ... my eye! Stir my soul, so to speak, as an investor. The first reason I buy a new collection piece is that the item represents the quality of my mind's eye when I view it against the overall scheme of my collection. I want the most in "precision, finish, material composition and one-of-a-kindness" that I can get for the budget of that investment purchase. It has to fit my collection as a condition of style, unit, whether it be art, knives, jewels, coins or whatever I collect. I'm doing this because I want my collection value as a whole to be worth more than the value of the individual items together.

2. It has to meet "only one" financial investment guideline that I place on every investment purchase I do ... "The value of the item must exceed it's investment by "one cent". If I had $15,000, $50,000 or $50 dollars to invest in my collection at the moment I make the decision to invest, the item must be obtainable at a purchase price that immediately has liquid value, exceeding the original investment by one cent. That to me, is the minimum.

What do I want from it all?

Very simple ... I want to own and enjoy "the finer things in life" for free with the option containing the best liquid movement for the long-term capital gain! Or, better yet "I want to make money off the finer things in life" while I own and enjoy them for free and be able to cash out as fast as possible in the event of emergency need!

Does that make sense?

Now ... do you go to the shows to look at all the "pretty knives" or do you go to the show with the intent of seeking out collection bargains?

What 200 makers represent the very best collection value for the serious investor today? Why?


Alex

Hi Alex,

I have met very few custom knife buyers who claim they are only in it to make money. The majority will tell you that they buy the knife because they like the knife. I suspect if we were to poll those who collected other type items would make the same comment.

While these custom knife buyers do not claim to be investors, they are. Once you have put thousands of dollars into anything, you have technically made an investment. The rate of return or lack there of, will depend on many factors. Education, timing and having "investment" capital readily available are the top three factors.

As for there being 200 makers who you can invest in and expect a decent return. The actual number would probably be closer to 15-25. This number will increase or decrease depending on your investment strategy.

Custom knife dealers more so than any one else can identify these makers for you. Here is the first question you ask any custom knife dealer. If I buy this knife and want to trade it in for a more expensive knife down the road will you give me my full purchase price? If they answer anything but "YES". They are telling you one of three things.

1) The price they have on it is to high
2) They do not feel the maker has a sufficient position in their market for the knife to hold it's value.
3) They are more interested in making a sale then helping your collection or "portfolio".

Remember, if the dealer you are thinking of buying the knife from, does not believe in the knife or the maker then you shouldn't either. EDUCATION! Do your homework.

Doesn't the final value in the deal for the buyer, ultimately come from his or her ability to perceive and quantify and negotiate worth? Both short and long term?

I'm looking at it for a 10-20 year ROI. I'm making early bets on some trends that I see occurring right here because of this medium. My plan is to collect all the knives I can that meet my personal investment criteria, and use the internet down the road to find my return in 10-20 years. I plan on being right here, realizing the dream.

Isn't it all about the average market in 10-20 years? At least that's where I'm thinking ... maybe this is too far out there on the internet, but I'm saying I, Alex Whetsell, believe that a $300 dollar (hand picked for quality) custom knife will sell for $400,$500 and even $600 dollars over the next 5-10-20 years on the internet.

In terms of what the CKD will be doing in 20 years, with any luck at all, we'll be one of the "premier resources on the planet", making markets for more makers and providing deep information and contact on the subject of collecting custom knives. So, in large part, I'm also betting on all our futures out here, too!

Personally, I think they're better than Baseball Cards over the next 10-20 years, given the internet. Especially, with millions of people worldwide entering the same buyer market. Understand, I've created deals to sell custom knives to collectors in China, Sweden, the Russian Federation and Taiwan, all within the last 30 days. Because of the equal access to the limited maker production, material and supply increases over time, the custom knife market is bound to take a pronounced spike in cost of ownership across the board in 10-20 years, possibly sooner.

What think ye? Am I off in Geek land or is there a much greater market demand on the horizon? Could I sell the last one I bought for $300 in 10 years (perhaps on the internet) for $500,$600? ... with a sharp eye to value?

That's what I'm talking! Long term and through building CKD resources and maker markets!

Who's with me?

Alex

One of the problems you run into, Alex, is that very few makers have enduring appeal to stand the test of time. At one time, brass was the norm for knife material (bolsters, pins) and even the very best makers used it, but if you use brass now, you might as well slap on some Dymondwood. There is nothing wrong with brass per se, but it is the mark of a user knife, not an investment grade knife. The same applies for materials now, what is hot today will not be hot tomorrow.

It is one thing to have some knives in your collection, but there are people with hundreds of thousands of dollars invested in knives, and I guarrantee you they keep a sharp eye on potential resale value. I think what Les has always tried to teach people is that what you can't stand not to have today easily becomes what you are willing to trade or sell away tomorrow to get the next piece you can't stand not to have. He tries to direct folks to knives that will retain their value when it is time to get tomorrows knife.

If you go to the for sale section on the other forums, you will see time and time again a knife for sale from an individual that is cheaper than the maker price, yet no one will touch it. Trends fall in there too. At one time, pink ivory (wood) was considered the pinnacle of a high end knife. Everyone was making those butt ugly bird knives (the back part of the handle looked like a birds beak). Even the carved, sculpted, damascus, exotic switches that are hot now are all starting to look the same and lose their appeal. You pay $3500 for one and you can't resell it for half that. that is a poor investment.

It always seems to be the clean, functional lines of high quality knives that are made by high quality makers that keep their value.

You're still talking yesterday talk ... what is the internet doing to it? How will it affect the market if you toss in another 2 million buyers, 4? 6? over the next 3 years?

Does this change the nature of the beast?

Alex

You are mixing two different concepts. Selling knives over the internet is going to get bigger, we can all agree on that. But that is just another avenue of commerce. It will not increase the value of a knife. If anything, the internet has created a flood of new makers, which is not bad, but it gives you this big pool of average makers with many of them making knives that look the same. It can dull the senses.

Which two concepts am I mixing? I'm a little unclear on that ...

OK ... let me clear up my position. Maybe I owe everyone that. I started the thread ....


1. I'm NOT talking from a reactive position when I draw my argument about future trends in the custom knife world. The CKD pretty much makes us about as proactive as we can be in this argument. So ... #1 one is, we're not talking about or following any previous trends, we're attempting to form alliances and make new ones as we speak. I see the custom knife business everyday. I plan to be in a position to dictate my fate in that area in this future I'm describing.

2. Since the future concludes the results of our daily actions over time, Let's lean on the experience and lesson taught by other knife media brothers like Blade Magazine, Knives Illustrated and such, to point out what they've done for the overall pricing of knives over the last 15 years.


So, here we have the Internet.
It's our jobs to help shape what values, trends, makers, materials, markets, communities and support resources and stuff that build this industry and are required to captain all of our fates.

I'm not sure how all our CKD makers and members feel about stuff like this, but we're telling all our friends in hopes they'll see it too.

When we look at our beginning makers and members here today, the one's who are here right now, learning, loving their art, getting good equipment at bargains, and practicing their skill by having direct daily access to incredible talent of the likes our community fathers and founders and those who will join, what we see today are tomorrow's masters being born. Today's CKD makers, the one's who's countless hours of help in instructing, showing off great designs and offering fellowship, will not be forgotten in value tomorrow, trust me! If anything, Steve, Ed, Don, everyone else and even you!, touching millions of people in this way over time will change the condition of your future value, one day.

There's an opportunity for a different level of worldwide notoriety going on out here right now. You're no longer exposed to the measly 30,000 subscribers willing to pay the price and learn the language of a Blade Magazine, so to speak. So the market is coming in full force now from all over the planet. Many people are stumbling into knife sites, getting bit by the bug and becoming enthusiast's, just as a consequence of connectivity. No payment required. The legends in the trade to them, because they haven't been told what to think, are the guy's who's work they see and like right now.

If we do our jobs, those same men will have access to the entire world community of custom knife connectivity in tomorrow's market ... that's the one we're creating proactively every day ... the one we see our community dictating who's a player or not by their contribution to the community as a whole. We are here to captain our fate.

I figure that "any artisan that is known by 1 million people, has a certain collectable value". I feel that if the same artisan is "respected" by that same 1 million people, their value increases immensely. We're slowly, but proactively helping the makers that use the CKD to reach out to that 1 million mark.

Now ... here's my question:

Does anyone share my vision?


Alex

In a word, yes.

I think that another aspect of this vastly expanded market is the likelihood of what is currently in fashion varying considerably with the level of awakening in a particular area or culture. Brass may indeed have "class" for some of the folks on the curve.

I see nothing but greatly increased opportunity and exposure for all of us.

Alex,
I agree with the concept, but just because people tune in from all over the world doesn't mean they will buy. Now your dealing with a global economy and while things may be good here this may not be the case elsewhere. Not to bring you down, just realize that there are going to be many factors that come into play. Both on the knife side and the economic side of the equation. Right now in the US we have one of the best economies ever, but if (or should I say when) that changes there will no longer be a market for custom knives. Oh yes the hunter will still want a blade, but there will no longer be the purchase of 2nd, 3rd and 4th knives.

Hi Jerry,

Jerry I think your sentence that said there would be no custom knife market is
probably a little overstated. So Im going to have to disagree with your theroy.

The majority of people who buy custom knives have a fair amount of disposable income. Generally, these are not the people who live from pay check to pay check. Most are college educated, professional types.

What you have seen and will continue to see is a custom knife market that will continue to grow, with no end in sight. However, as the economy slows custom knife buyers will not stop buying, they will
just become more particular.

These buyers will start doing more homework. They will start to look for makers who:

1) Have value consistent with the price of the knife.
2) Take an active role in promoting themselves and their knives.
3) Work with dealers and purveyors. As these individuals work in the aftermarket.
Dealers who consistently carry and look to purchase particular makers knives will
help insure a constant demand at the primary sales level (from the maker).
4) They do not use words with negative conotations. Such as I don't, you shouldn't,
Couldnt we use another type of steel, Wouldnt you rather use brass, etc.
5) Makers who will not take deposits on standard knives
6) Makers who meet their delivery times
7) Makers who will use a wide variety of materials. There by giving the client more options.
:cool: Makers who make themselves available to potential clients. They don't attend shows
Just to hang out at the bar with their buddies and leave a business card and a photo
on their table.

Makers will no longer be able to rest on their laurels. They will have to employ as the term the Japanese
TQM executives coined...Keizen or contiunious improvement. This implies that no
matter what the industry, each product must be better than the next.

With some makers you actually see a decrease in quality as they become better known.

Jerry, I feel what you will see is better knives being made for a fair price. Many of the names you
know today will be names of the past in 5-7 years from now. Want proof, get a Knives 1992 and go through it. Look at how many of those makers are not listed in Knives 2000.

Before the Internet, it would take customers a decade to learn about custom knives what they can learn now in two years. Consequently, you have a more educated clientel, who are asking
pointed questions that knife makers didn't hear 5 years ago.

One last thing to those makers who are reading this. If you don't have a web site withing the next
1-2 years, you are going to get left behind.

Even the knife magazines are doing articles on this. I will be featured in a web
site article that Tactical Knives is doing that will be out in April. Also, I am being
interviewed for a upcoming article on building web sites that will be in Blade Magazine
in May or June. It was this time last year that I was featured in an article in Blade Trade
Magazine about selling knives on the Internet.

Couple that with Two, 5-6 page articles in Tactical Knives in the last 5 months featuring my Vanguard knives
Also, 7 other Vanguard knives were featured in Blade Magazine, (to include on e in the review of the Guild Show) all with my web site information.

You can probably guess what impact that has had on the amount of visitors I receive and the amount of knives I am selling on a daily basis.

Makers and Collectors alike, Jerry "the end is near" O is some what correct. There
will be some makers who fall by the way side.

If your a maker, ask yourself right now, what can I do to improve my position in a shifting market.

If your a collector, evaluate your collection. Ask yourself the tough questions about the makers
who's knives make up your collection. If you realize that a particular maker is not going to
make the cut, then get rid of that knife and steer clear of them in the future. Until you feel
they have shown signicant imporvement.

Personally, I challange all the knife makers I work with on a regular basis. Some have fallen short for any number of reasons. Consequently, I no longer carry their knives. Doesn't mean they are
a bad maker or a bad person. To me it means they have hit a plateau. Knife makers are
people just like the rest of us. The like to expand their comfort zone and reap the benefits
of being successful. There is nothing wrong with that, unless of course they stay there
too long.

Talking like this makes me want to write a book! :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :

How about some of you collectors out there, what do you look for in a maker, besides just
quality work!

Les,

That is exactly my point!


Now ... how do we position ourselves to take maximum advantage of this coming new age? Easy ...

My contention is to organize the majority of the serious players into a closed community sub-matrix. That's where I'm placing all the chips from my bet! This is where the CKD is being directed ... also Atlanta Virtual.

Organization into special interest communities is the trend we're seeing out here. In order for the net to work for any specialized community, the information must be sub-grouped and searchable. The traffic must be tightly controlled. That's where we're working on the development now.

When people see the CKD in their mind's eye in the future, I want them to see the doorway to all things "custom knife" on the net. A "custom knife" portal ...

On that note ...
I would gladly be willing to discuss the business side of what our immediate, intermediate and long-range development plans are out here ... and their possible significance in the industry.

In that case, however, get me 5 Men with enough means and interest in the subject to attend, arrange a place and time for a meeting and I'll fly there. That's how serious I am ...

I'll bring 500,000 visitors a month to put on the table that are currently hitting our systems in search of custom knife related information. As it stands now, these are from independently operated and managed sites. My presentation will be to show everyone how to build a Internet "Custom Knife" WAN system, so to speak, that can change the nature of how our community works, grows and prospers in the future.

What we now see as the independent, self managed, self promoted and isolated internet site will soon become obsolete in the coming future. The real trend for the future is in the "closed system matrix". And, we're miles ahead of everyone else in developing it for this industry ... everyone will see this over time as we develop our portal content.

More on the subject later ...


Alex

Les,
Ok, I see your point, but do you remember back in the late 80's when the economy was in the toilet. What i meant without being clear I'm afraid is that people where not spending on luxury goods. There was to much uncertainty in the world around them. I'm an engineer and basically I can forecast the economy fairly well, cause when there's no money no one builds. Real Estate is always a good deal so if they're not building you know it's bad. Right now things have slowed, but there's still plenty of work out there. There will always be that group who will have money no matter what. But in bad times people invest in hard stuff, real estate, gold, silver, art works, Now if we could turn people on to the investment aspect of knife collecting, as art, that would be a booming market. Of course it will lead to other problems, like speculators, people who buy just for investment and not for the joy of it. I point you to the exotic and muscle car market of just a few years back.

Alex,
I see that I misread your post I think that a custom knife portal is a great idea!

Jerry, even though the economy was soft here, the Japanese were gobbling up custom knives. A friend told me they would walk into a show and buy every knife on th table from the likes of Bob Terzuola. I wasn't involved then, so someone else please back me up on that They bought high quality knives from the same type of makers that Les carries on his site. There will always be a market of some type, but not everyone will flourish in that market. The meat and potatos maker that is regional and does his local gun shows and makes the same knife for 20 years will be the one to suffer in the hard times. I don't think Buster Warenski ever suffered a dry patch.

I am just hanging on to Alex's coattails, because I know that he knows where he is going and I want to be involved. He makes money and he helps people around him make money. Those #### A-type personalities drive me nuts

CKD has been built on a solid base in integrity and professionalism, and that is what will take it and its members to the top. Alex has got the business end locked up. He is just waiting for the world to catch up. Is is my job to talk to the makers and collectors as a maker and collector and show them that this is the real deal.

I'm jumping on board too! CKD has my vote!

Peace

Paul

Guy's,

I know the world follows the US economy in large part, but the internet immediatly lowers the impact by spreading the market. So, if anything, it's real impact will be to smooth out the valleys and lows.

Jerry touched on something...

Because of the mass contact capability, we could see custom knives in the future entering the antiquities and general collectors markets.

We are the captians of a global opportunity right now in the custom knife industry. The door is wide open to totally redefine how it's done in this world. From seeing my knife on my site at 5:30PM to having it in your position in 24 hours changes the face of the game forever. Mainstream average to mid-range customs into the impulse market for the average credit card buyer and develop content for the developing collector community, and you're doing something like it would take to see this all take form.

Let's say this, if it happens ... I'm glad everyone here is with us. We can all look at each other one day and know we did something positive and powerful on a global playing field.

Alex