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The Business of Knife Making A forum dedicated to all aspects of running, managing and legal operational issues relating to the custom knife making and custom knife selling industry.

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Old 01-14-2003, 12:47 PM
MPMetal MPMetal is offline
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War footing

I know that this sounds like a bit of over kill but... with the chance that we (the USA) may be involved in a large war in the next year or so, I have started giveing thought to what this could do to my business, and what I can do to lessen the negative impacts. to go to a war footing for lack of a better term.
the worst case would be a real WWIII if that were to come about then I have very little Idea of what I can do to save myself.
how ever if we get into a lesser conflict (Iraq but not korea) I think that there are some things I can do. what I am unsure about.
problems in volved in both out comes.
1 steel prices will jump( this includes scrap prices to a lesser degree) also prices for other metals and things like G10 will also go up.
2 rationing could take place. (fuel, food, etc)
3 customers may not buy things that are not needed (just a new hunting knife but not the new long sword Etc.) I also make railings and other forged Items other than knifes in this area I could see a move to only repairs and simple (read cheep) new work
4 a lack in skills (in the market) makeing some of us take jobs in factorys, or our shops being asked to make things for the goverment (this could be both good and bad)
the up sides that I see.
1 more intrest in made in the USA items. this is two fold as imported stuff will become more expencive being shiped around a war zone and geting anything into the country will be harder.
2 an employment boom could spread out more money to be spent.
3 more development in nitch markets (ie little mikey is going off to war and we want to get him a new knife)

I do hope any thinking on this will end up being unneeded but I would like to hear every ones elses thoughts.
MP
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  #2  
Old 01-14-2003, 03:04 PM
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Tim Adlam Tim Adlam is offline
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MP,

Times are scary indeed.

Considering your model scenario I would look at eliminating any short-term debt such as credit card and personal loans. Next I would re-finance my home mortgage to a lower rate and maybe for a longer term if possible. This would free up your cash flow a bit. The extra cash can provide for materials and tooling that you may feel a future need for.
If you invest in stocks I would consider moving some of those assets to a more liquid investment such as a money market, bonds or CD's.
This is a good time to evaluate your business plan. If you don't have one, its a good time to set one up. This plan is what keeps you focused on what you're really in business for. It will help you evaluate your strengths and weaknesses and may open up new market areas that you didn't think of at first.
Should we be faced with shortages or rationing, bartering will probably be the name of the game thereafter. Look at what personal skills or resources you have that you can bring to the table. I hope we don't have to work to support a war effort, but if it does come to that, I'll try to find a position best suited to my skills.
Like you, I hope a war does not come to pass. Evaluating the future of your business is good sense in any political climate.

Tim
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Old 01-15-2003, 01:42 PM
MPMetal MPMetal is offline
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thank you for the advice,
I do have a business plan ... I think it may be time for me to rewrite it .. good idea that.
I don't own a house right now I was planing to buy this year, as I need a bigger shop and I want my own home. I was planing on moveing forward with that this year. should I rethink it?
curently most of my income is going back into the business (upgradeing tools, adverts, etc)

the idea of bartering (in the cast of shortages and rationing) some how makes me feel better as I have enough skills to at least offer something needed to allmost any one ... at least I will eat!!
MP
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Old 01-15-2003, 10:04 PM
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Tim Adlam Tim Adlam is offline
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MP,
Glad to help.
Thats cool that you have a formal business plan, most people don't.
With interest rates as low as they are at the present, I think its a great time to invest in your own home. There might be additional tax advantages in regards to your business that should be discussed with an accountant.
Some people may not think so...but I believe that bartering is a big share of the life-blood of this country. Its a painless transaction as long as both parties feel that they're getting a good deal. I would caution about getting into barter-debt though. It seems to work best when both parties have an immediate need as opposed to calling in a marker several months down the road.

Tim
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Old 01-16-2003, 12:29 AM
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J.Arthur Loose J.Arthur Loose is offline
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It wouldn't take much to derail my relatively new business right now... But one thing I take ( small ) comfort in is that the present war has as much to do with maintaining the economy as anything else. I do expect to see some problems with gasoline and ( hopefully not ) propane... but remember the first Gulf War was all hype. I suspect this one won't be as easy but really; we've kept Iraq down hard for ten years. It won't be too much worse. North Korea would be quick as well but much uglier. Thankfully I'm on the East coast and will only get the fallout.

If you survived the economy in the ashes of the dot-com bust and 9/11 you'll make it through this...

Although one thing I love about Vermont is that neighbors pull together and the guy down the road does fresh raw milk... the other guy grows food... I have a wood stove and a hand-pump for water. As long as I can keep the bank away from the house I'm good. If the fit hits the shan they'll be needing a Smith... well... not the bank at any rate.


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Old 01-16-2003, 09:25 AM
JimmySeymour JimmySeymour is offline
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something you should consider if you don't allready have it in your line is military knives. I have a bunch of ex-military buddies calling me up, and asking when i'm finally going to get my shop up and running, and that they need a no frills, serious piece of hardware. I plan on making as many as i can without hurting me financially and giving them to my buddies. I know what they make in the military, it's depressing. I doudt korea will do much more, even the russians have told them there going about this wrong. Iraq is pretty much a sure thing.
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Old 01-16-2003, 10:50 AM
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Tim Adlam Tim Adlam is offline
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One interesting thing concerning the stock market scare a while back is that when panic hit wall street and people were bailing out...it was the small-time investors...in for the long haul...that kept everything afloat...again.
Since then and as post 9/11 has proven, this attitude is being adopted by individuals and communities around the nation.
No one person can stand alone and survive for long. The need for stronger community ties is evident.
If you look at the individuals that make up the knife industry as a general example, and the members of this forum in particular, you'll find that neighborly attitudes prevail.
Should we find ourselves in a worst-case scenario...I know that many leaders will come from these ranks.
In times like these...its comforting to know that I'm in such good company...
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Old 01-18-2003, 11:55 PM
whv whv is offline
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Quote:
the present war has as much to do with maintaining the economy as anything else
what's new????
.
Quote:
The need for stronger community ties is evident
totally agree, tim, but it's a long reach to wisconsin, let alone vermont (jon) - as long as the electricity lasts, we can at least keep in touch


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Last edited by whv; 01-19-2003 at 12:02 AM.
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Old 02-18-2003, 10:15 AM
Dana Acker Dana Acker is offline
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Trade Goods and Neo-Tribalism

Worst case scenario, we who survive, end up starring in our own versions of "Mad Max." Not as bad as worst case scenario, things get tough(er) on the home front economically and materially due to the war and its associated ills--which, to be realistic, is probably more likely than most everything perishing in a gaint fireball. Yet it is true that the Mid-East is a real wild card right now, with few being able to predict what will, let alone might happen. It could be anything from a quick and decisive victory to WWIII with the world against Islam.

Hopefully the status quo will not be altered drastically in the days/weeks/months to come, and we can continue basicaly as normal. But if not, perhaps the Neo-Tribal approach bears another look.

I have worked very hard over at the Outpost forum to make everyone, regardless of past Neo-Tribal affiliations or inclinations or not, to feel welcome and comfortable. We have old original Neo-Tribalists and we have stock removers and everything in between all hanging out together, sharing information and getting along well. The emphasis has been redirected towards "anything it takes to make a good knife," and away from "my way is superior to yours."

Granted, a lot of the bad press the Neo-Tribal movement incurred, it asked for. Some of the personalities really rubbed the knifemaking community the wrong way, and have done some things that discredited the movement. But being that we are on the subject of possible hard times and how they might affect knifemaking in general, perhaps we ought not throw the baby out with the bath water, put aside old feelings, and re-investigate some of what the original movement had to offer.

One of the original slogans associated with the Neo-Tribal Metalsmiths (NTM's) was, "If the apocalypse occurred tomorrow, could you still make a knife?" Now before someone turns this into a religious discussion, we're not talking about the Biblical Apocalypse, Armageddon, end of the world here. OK? I'm using the term to refer to some type of cataclysm which would drastically alter the way we live and operate on a daily basis. If something like that were to take place, either due to an economic crisis, war, unthinkable terrorism or a combination of the three, would you, or could you, still make knives? Reasonable questions, given the subject matter of this topic.

I was never one to either promote or decry the spending of whatever one could afford to outfit one's shop. I do not believe there is virtue in only spending $50.00 for one's knife shop, any more than there is spending $10,000.00. I'm glad one can make knives economically if pressed to do so--I'm grateful for folks like Wayne Goddard and the Neo-Tribalists for working so hard to bring knifemaking to people who cannot afford to spend a lot of money to get into such a wonderful craft. On the other hand, I have a real appreciation for nice equipment. I myself have a Rob Frink 2x72 KMG in my shop, along with a 50 lb. Little Giant powerhammer, a milling machine, drill press, NC Tool gas forge, etc. etc. , not to brag or get into some kind of show and tell one upmanship, but to say that I have invested quite a bit in my shop. Should a cataclysm not occur, I'm not going to feel the least guilty for using anything that I feel might help me make a better knife. But if something awful does happen that rearranges life as we know it, all those tools and machines basically just become very nice paper weights.

Because of my long association with the NTM's (pretty much since the beginning,) I also have a hand crank blower on my charcoal forge, a post drill, lots of files and a bicycle which has been converted to a grinder with a 12" rotating stone. I also can use recycled materials and scavenged materials, and make supplies like glue from things in nature too. No brag, it's just what we NT types are wont to do. It was a large part of our emphasis. The point is, if a cataclysm occurs that interrupts life as we know it, or if I move somewhere off the power grid, or if I just get ornery in my old age and get ticked at the power company like William Scagel did, I am still able to make knives. Granted, with a little more effort, and maybe not quite as fancy, but good looking serviceable knives nonetheless.

That took care of the "could," part of the question, now for the "would." If things ever do go south, people will still need knives and tools. If the proverbial tomato gets thrown into the electric fan (I'm trying to be nice here,) will Walmart still be able to fill the needs of America? Will people take up hunting out of necessity? Will people who are hard put, begin doing more work for themselves and need tools so to do? Will people, like our forefathers did, start carrying knives again? Perhaps. Likely, even. And where will they get their knives--especially specialty items they may need for specific tasks?

Now in a failing or failed economy, I might not be able to sell knives for the prices I command today in the market, but if the economy goes to pieces, prices, or should I say values, will change anyway. Maybe a knife could be traded for a week's worth of groceries, or a couple of tanks of gas, or some clothes or boots, some antibiotics, or firewood, or a widgit to repair something--trade goods, barter economy. Living in the once rural (tobacco), and industrial (textiles) South, I've seen economic hard times hit long before the war talk was so prevalent. There's thousands unemployed people in my neck of the woods, with benefits running out and no where else to go find a job, since we don't have factories in this country any more, and the govt has decided that smoking is worse than Saddam Hussein. My point is, and believe me, I know, the barter economy is alive and well. It is already a necessity for a larger segment of our society than most are comfortable thinking about, in order for many to just live and survive. If things mess up bad, it will be not just a way, but more likely, the way business is done. Knives make darn good trade goods.

So while in the short term with all that's going on, business might suffer to some extent--I hope not much. But if things really get rotten, perhaps one might think about looking into some of the more pragmatic aspects that the NTM's had to offer if one wants to be able to continue the craft and make an at least better living in the midst of it.

Just something to ponder. Hopefully this will only be an intellectual exercise and nothing more, but in case the lights do eventually go out...we talk about and endeavor to practice some of these things over at the CKD Bladesmith's Outpost. Feel free to stop by sometime. If the lights do go out, it'll be too late.


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Last edited by Dana Acker; 02-19-2003 at 10:17 AM.
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